Home Forcast: Where the Growth is…and Isn’t

By Tara Kalwarski
Money Magazine

The housing market is coming in for a landing – and so far, at least, it looks like a soft one.

Nationwide, single-family home prices will rise 3.5 percent between now and June 2007, according to forecasters at Fiserv Lending Solutions and Moody’s Economy.com. “That’s a decent increase,” says Fiserv chief economist David Stiff.

Still, it’s less than half the past year’s clip and well under the 10 percent annual rate of the past five years.

How will your region fare? If it was hot, with few exceptions, now it’s not. Appreciation will slow to a trickle in New York and Los Angeles.

Las Vegas prices will fall, and by next spring Sin City will have plenty of company in the loss column.

“This slowdown is the initial stage of correction in many markets,” says Stiff.

On the other hand, a few ugly-duckling markets will see surprising gains as their affordability turns buyers’ heads.

The markets below are ranked by forecast for the next four quarters.

Click on column headings to re-rank.

Click on city name for a full report of key market stats.

How does your town stack up?

Forecasts by Fiserv Lending Solutions and Moody’s Economy.com
Metro State Median Price Historical Gain
(2001–2005)
Forecast
(June 2006–June 2007)
Panama City-Lynn Haven FL $124,555 102.70% 21.20%
Wenatchee WA $184,650 38.40% 16.70%
Mount Vernon-Anacortes WA $199,947 56.10% 14.50%
El Centro CA $132,321 102.90% 14.10%
Lakeland FL $170,000 85.50% 13.90%
Olympia WA $198,871 64.50% 13.10%
Ocala FL $161,000 86.40% 12.90%
Yakima WA $135,000 23.70% 12.80%
Spokane WA $169,000 50.20% 12.40%
Flagstaff AZ $308,000 95.10% 12.10%
Bremerton-Silverdale WA $156,353 69.00% 11.50%
Longview WA $158,596 36.00% 11.40%
McAllen-Edinburg-Pharr TX $100,992 25.40% 11.40%
Kennewick-Richland-Pasco WA $158,000 29.00% 11.00%
Bellingham WA $215,641 83.10% 10.80%
Cumberland MD $86,000 41.30% 10.80%
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett WA $360,000 49.30% 10.50%
Bend OR $218,673 80.20% 10.40%
Boise City-Nampa ID NA 50.60% 10.10%
Pittsfield MA $180,000 65.30% 9.70%
Tacoma WA $250,000 53.80% 9.60%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL $189,000 141.80% 9.30%
Naples-Marco Island FL $407,000 149.00% 9.30%
Las Cruces NM $129,156 49.40% 9.00%
Salisbury MD $175,000 76.20% 9.00%
Glens Falls NY $150,000 71.10% 8.80%
Brownsville-Harlingen TX $69,290 23.30% 8.80%
Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton NJ $120,622 76.40% 8.50%
Laredo TX $95,321 25.30% 8.50%
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville FL $210,000 130.80% 8.40%
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach SC $179,786 51.40% 8.40%
Albuquerque NM $146,000 30.40% 8.30%
Jacksonville FL $200,000 78.10% 8.00%
Dover DE $186,000 65.20% 7.70%
Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce FL $250,000 153.50% 7.70%
Orlando FL $257,000 109.60% 7.60%
Salt Lake City UT $182,000 29.50% 7.60%
Eugene-Springfield OR $209,000 53.40% 7.50%
St. George UT $186,068 71.60% 7.50%
Corvallis OR $205,823 35.30% 7.50%
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton OR $265,000 58.50% 7.50%
Farmington NM $166,000 56.70% 7.40%
El Paso TX $118,000 34.30% 7.40%
Coeur d’Alene ID $118,794 80.50% 7.30%
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach FL $200,000 122.70% 7.20%
Prescott AZ $262,000 98.00% 7.20%
Wilmington NC $193,873 50.50% 7.00%
Redding CA $159,089 123.80% 7.00%
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton PA $243,000 64.50% 7.00%
Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA $725,000 65.60% 6.90%
Camden NJ $225,000 86.90% 6.80%
Florence-Muscle Shoals AL $112,412 21.20% 6.80%
Visalia-Porterville CA $260,000 138.40% 6.80%
Hagerstown-Martinsburg MD $222,000 91.30% 6.80%
Burlington-South Burlington VT $250,000 64.30% 6.50%
Provo-Orem UT $205,640 19.70% 6.50%
Johnstown PA $85,549 37.00% 6.50%
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford CT $240,000 54.70% 6.50%
Yuba City CA $151,598 143.60% 6.50%
Decatur AL $119,868 18.10% 6.40%
Corpus Christi TX $131,000 36.40% 6.40%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ $259,000 108.40% 6.30%
Winchester VA $153,519 101.10% 6.30%
Ogden-Clearfield UT $159,919 17.40% 6.30%
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City CA $835,000 46.70% 6.30%
Victoria TX $95,716 15.80% 6.20%
Lewiston ID 47.00% 6.20%
Williamsport PA $102,706 28.60% 6.20%
Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice FL $285,000 132.70% 6.20%
Logan UT $168,159 21.80% 6.10%
Montgomery AL $136,000 24.90% 6.10%
Longview TX $102,687 29.00% 6.10%
Dothan AL $116,921 27.00% 6.00%
Utica-Rome NY $79,646 38.50% 6.00%
Wilmington DE $239,000 72.50% 6.00%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL $214,000 105.40% 6.00%
Vero Beach FL $204,000 125.00% 5.90%
Morristown TN $108,871 31.60% 5.90%
Tallahassee FL $173,000 67.70% 5.90%
Texarkana TX $94,871 26.30% 5.80%
Jonesboro AR $119,833 16.10% 5.80%
Tuscaloosa AL $142,787 28.00% 5.80%
Scranton–Wilkes-Barre PA $100,303 36.30% 5.80%
Salem OR $194,000 38.10% 5.80%
Bangor ME $113,701 57.30% 5.80%
Odessa TX $65,830 36.50% 5.70%
Tucson AZ $228,000 87.00% 5.70%
Gadsden AL $91,413 35.00% 5.70%
Huntsville AL $136,180 25.30% 5.70%
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach FL $350,000 141.20% 5.70%
Anniston-Oxford AL $91,175 30.40% 5.60%
Morgantown WV $132,940 51.60% 5.60%
Mobile AL $134,000 28.40% 5.50%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News VA $221,000 91.30% 5.40%
Baltimore-Towson MD $259,000 102.50% 5.40%
Jackson TN $111,654 18.40% 5.40%
Lewiston-Auburn ME $102,638 62.70% 5.30%
Fort Smith AR $106,435 23.30% 5.30%
Alexandria LA $102,379 27.30% 5.20%
Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood TX $86,277 30.00% 5.20%
Pine Bluff AR $76,848 26.40% 5.20%
Elmira NY $79,000 24.10% 5.10%
Fairbanks AK $156,940 40.40% 5.10%
Wichita Falls TX $85,867 26.60% 5.10%
San Angelo TX $84,103 31.80% 5.10%
San Antonio TX $137,000 31.60% 5.00%
Charleston WV $117,000 22.00% 5.00%
Altoona PA $80,033 30.10% 5.00%
Santa Fe NM $290,201 57.00% 5.00%
Binghamton NY $96,000 34.10% 5.00%
Albany GA $102,826 28.90% 4.90%
Niles-Benton Harbor MI $101,641 36.90% 4.90%
Bowling Green KY $134,907 21.80% 4.90%
Buffalo-Niagara Falls NY $100,000 32.00% 4.90%
Jacksonville NC $105,338 44.40% 4.90%
Pocatello ID $128,008 32.10% 4.90%
Springfield MA $189,000 68.10% 4.80%
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent FL $166,000 82.70% 4.80%
Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux LA $108,054 30.90% 4.80%
Johnson City TN $112,000 29.80% 4.80%
Birmingham-Hoover AL $161,000 32.10% 4.80%
Hot Springs AR $122,424 41.20% 4.80%
Tyler TX $110,485 32.50% 4.70%
Ithaca NY $155,065 55.30% 4.70%
Rochester NY $113,000 24.00% 4.70%
Cleveland TN $122,074 28.50% 4.70%
Pueblo CO $120,712 22.60% 4.70%
Fayetteville NC $117,653 22.50% 4.70%
Newark-Union NJ $393,000 86.80% 4.70%
Grand Forks ND $121,071 42.10% 4.60%
Lawton OK $122,000 30.60% 4.60%
Valdosta GA $111,998 30.80% 4.60%
Colorado Springs CO $209,000 33.10% 4.60%
Memphis TN $135,000 14.70% 4.60%
Syracuse NY $113,000 37.60% 4.60%
Baton Rouge LA $154,000 27.90% 4.60%
Danville IL $64,000 26.50% 4.50%
Sherman-Denison TX $94,256 24.00% 4.50%
Midland TX $97,867 34.90% 4.50%
Shreveport-Bossier City LA $126,000 34.60% 4.50%
Tulsa OK $120,000 22.00% 4.50%
Cincinnati-Middletown OH $188,000 25.50% 4.50%
College Station-Bryan TX $161,900 22.20% 4.50%
Abilene TX $81,176 22.30% 4.50%
Hanford-Corcoran CA $254,000 134.80% 4.40%
Little Rock-North Little Rock AR $126,000 28.10% 4.40%
Gainesville FL $188,000 77.10% 4.40%
Idaho Falls ID $113,744 36.80% 4.40%
Macon GA $116,626 25.40% 4.40%
Philadelphia PA $252,000 73.50% 4.40%
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman OH $89,000 13.80% 4.40%
Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford VA $178,528 42.70% 4.30%
Waco TX $76,297 32.80% 4.30%
Lebanon PA $117,033 28.10% 4.30%
Lubbock TX $93,832 25.90% 4.30%
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro TN $149,000 29.10% 4.30%
Clarksville TN $101,000 21.10% 4.30%
State College PA $175,932 38.90% 4.30%
Madera CA $129,188 143.70% 4.30%
Lynchburg VA $121,760 39.30% 4.20%
New Haven-Milford CT $259,000 69.70% 4.20%
Roanoke VA $132,305 42.80% 4.20%
Decatur IL $85,000 21.70% 4.20%
Goldsboro NC $120,725 18.50% 4.20%
Owensboro KY $105,055 18.40% 4.20%
Anchorage AK $195,653 56.80% 4.20%
Medford OR $172,894 98.00% 4.10%
Trenton-Ewing NJ $260,000 87.20% 4.10%
Fort Wayne IN $104,000 16.70% 4.10%
Rocky Mount NC $121,525 17.40% 4.10%
South Bend-Mishawaka IN $90,000 23.60% 4.10%
Fort Worth-Arlington TX $101,093 20.00% 4.10%
Brunswick GA $109,087 47.50% 4.10%
Duluth MN $110,697 56.70% 4.10%
Bismarck ND $124,016 35.20% 4.10%
Fort Collins-Loveland CO $223,190 26.20% 4.00%
Erie PA $100,000 18.40% 4.00%
Sandusky OH $123,269 20.90% 4.00%
Dallas-Plano-Irving TX $179,920 20.10% 4.00%
Springfield MO $121,000 28.10% 4.00%
Pittsburgh PA $142,000 25.50% 4.00%
Monroe LA $108,101 25.90% 4.00%
Knoxville TN $125,000 33.90% 4.00%
Great Falls MT $116,194 30.60% 4.00%
Albany-Schenectady-Troy NY $191,000 71.30% 3.90%
Greenville NC $145,382 20.60% 3.90%
Springfield IL $106,000 17.00% 3.80%
Warner Robins GA $102,037 24.10% 3.80%
Oklahoma City OK $122,000 32.10% 3.80%
Beaumont-Port Arthur TX $104,000 23.50% 3.80%
Huntington-Ashland WV $97,321 29.40% 3.80%
Augusta-Richmond County GA $115,851 30.80% 3.70%
Chattanooga TN $133,000 32.70% 3.70%
Wheeling WV $98,948 24.10% 3.70%
Parkersburg-Marietta WV $87,587 20.40% 3.70%
Austin-Round Rock TX $167,000 18.50% 3.70%
Lafayette IN $131,895 12.10% 3.70%
Columbus GA $111,498 31.80% 3.70%
Harrisburg-Carlisle PA $121,201 37.60% 3.60%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA $705,000 39.40% 3.60%
Lancaster PA $184,000 49.70% 3.60%
Wausau WI $123,227 32.50% 3.60%
Rockingham County-Strafford County NH $279,000 59.50% 3.60%
Harrisonburg VA $157,881 61.80% 3.60%
Kankakee-Bradley IL $124,000 31.50% 3.60%
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles CA $540,000 122.20% 3.60%
Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol TN $120,314 31.50% 3.60%
Bakersfield CA $272,000 171.20% 3.60%
Indianapolis IN $122,000 19.60% 3.60%
Jefferson City MO $129,918 22.10% 3.60%
Columbus IN $142,928 17.10% 3.60%
Dayton OH $125,000 16.80% 3.60%
Canton-Massillon OH $126,000 16.20% 3.60%
Lima OH $99,920 24.60% 3.60%
Battle Creek MI $126,000 22.10% 3.60%
Boulder CO $350,000 23.60% 3.60%
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land TX $146,000 24.90% 3.50%
Terre Haute IN $96,456 20.90% 3.50%
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor OH $153,000 18.60% 3.50%
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord NC $184,000 20.00% 3.50%
Norwich-New London CT $250,000 74.90% 3.50%
Kokomo IN $111,960 15.70% 3.50%
United States $213,000 55.00% 3.50%
Toledo OH $129,000 17.20% 3.40%
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach FL $328,000 145.70% 3.40%
Amarillo TX $105,000 22.30% 3.40%
Warren-Farmington Hills-Troy MI $185,000 17.50% 3.40%
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL $274,000 54.70% 3.40%
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner LA $181,000 42.90% 3.40%
Elkhart-Goshen IN $120,650 21.00% 3.40%
Green Bay WI $151,000 28.70% 3.40%
Durham NC $169,000 23.70% 3.30%
Danville VA $99,000 18.10% 3.30%
Joplin MO $99,347 28.00% 3.30%
Springfield OH $109,000 16.20% 3.30%
Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI $135,000 23.50% 3.30%
Auburn-Opelika AL $167,528 36.90% 3.30%
Akron OH $148,000 16.30% 3.30%
Elizabethtown KY $127,014 30.20% 3.30%
Greensboro-High Point NC $150,000 17.80% 3.20%
Hattiesburg MS $115,034 24.30% 3.20%
Muskegon-Norton Shores MI $106,380 21.50% 3.20%
Rome GA $113,470 28.20% 3.20%
Kingston NY $260,000 90.70% 3.20%
York-Hanover PA $131,785 51.30% 3.20%
Anderson SC $121,141 23.20% 3.20%
Raleigh-Cary NC $198,000 18.70% 3.20%
Fargo ND $135,000 40.90% 3.10%
Chico CA $290,000 129.50% 3.10%
Fresno CA $300,000 164.90% 3.10%
Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn MI $126,000 20.80% 3.10%
Appleton WI $129,000 27.90% 3.10%
Bloomington-Normal IL $162,000 19.30% 3.10%
Florence SC $135,261 24.90% 3.10%
Billings MT $129,057 46.70% 3.10%
Bloomington IN $147,841 25.10% 3.10%
Winston-Salem NC $148,264 20.20% 3.10%
Gary IN $128,000 26.20% 3.10%
Missoula MT $170,253 63.10% 3.00%
Edison NJ $351,000 92.90% 3.00%
Dubuque IA $121,800 28.20% 3.00%
Michigan City-La Porte IN $125,490 26.80% 3.00%
Kalamazoo-Portage MI $127,159 25.20% 3.00%
Honolulu HI $620,000 99.40% 3.00%
Evansville IN $111,644 20.30% 3.00%
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham MA $428,000 44.70% 2.90%
Reading PA $143,000 50.10% 2.90%
Wichita Falls, TX KS $109,000 20.20% 2.90%
Rochester MN $152,349 30.30% 2.90%
Mansfield OH $107,872 23.10% 2.90%
Portland-South Portland-Biddeford ME $246,000 70.10% 2.90%
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT $530,000 64.80% 2.90%
St. Louis MO $139,000 39.60% 2.90%
Lexington-Fayette KY $151,000 28.60% 2.90%
Jackson MS $143,000 24.40% 2.90%
Columbia SC $137,000 28.50% 2.90%
Sioux City IA $135,014 14.70% 2.80%
Lansing-East Lansing MI $148,000 28.00% 2.80%
Punta Gorda FL $135,000 148.30% 2.80%
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers AR $144,647 44.30% 2.80%
Columbus OH $172,000 20.80% 2.80%
Fond du Lac WI $126,326 24.70% 2.80%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA $184,000 21.60% 2.80%
Muncie IN $92,245 19.40% 2.80%
Louisville KY $135,000 24.50% 2.70%
Sheboygan WI $121,678 28.40% 2.70%
St. Cloud MN $122,168 49.50% 2.70%
Worcester MA $279,000 61.40% 2.70%
Oshkosh-Neenah WI $127,696 26.10% 2.70%
Asheville NC $165,918 45.10% 2.70%
Hinesville-Fort Stewart GA $91,222 44.30% 2.70%
Anderson IN $96,630 19.20% 2.70%
Dalton GA $136,900 34.20% 2.70%
Columbia MO $148,638 29.10% 2.70%
Cheyenne WY $132,329 42.30% 2.60%
Charlottesville VA $207,735 76.70% 2.60%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC $428,000 121.30% 2.60%
Ames IA $165,456 23.10% 2.60%
Janesville WI $129,675 28.50% 2.60%
Lafayette LA $142,335 33.90% 2.60%
Cedar Rapids IA $134,000 20.50% 2.60%
Sumter SC $102,648 28.90% 2.50%
Casper WY $109,434 64.80% 2.50%
Santa Rosa-Petaluma CA $591,000 79.90% 2.50%
St. Joseph MO $95,749 26.70% 2.50%
Lake Charles LA $115,336 28.70% 2.50%
Athens-Clarke County GA $156,552 31.00% 2.50%
Greenville SC $152,000 19.40% 2.50%
Iowa City IA $170,463 27.90% 2.40%
Waterloo-Cedar Falls IA $100,000 33.30% 2.40%
Ann Arbor MI $221,000 24.50% 2.40%
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton NC $153,483 21.70% 2.40%
Omaha-Council Bluffs NE $138,000 23.40% 2.30%
Burlington NC $134,826 11.80% 2.30%
Sioux Falls SD $136,000 27.30% 2.30%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale CA $525,000 150.20% 2.30%
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura CA $659,000 128.80% 2.30%
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island IA $109,000 26.50% 2.30%
Lincoln NE $137,538 22.00% 2.30%
Grand Junction CO $156,222 50.00% 2.30%
Eau Claire WI $123,608 31.50% 2.30%
Peoria IL $113,000 23.90% 2.20%
Weirton-Steubenville OH NA 30.30% 2.20%
Lawrence KS $156,645 32.50% 2.20%
Richmond VA $150,584 59.30% 2.20%
Des Moines IA $147,000 28.80% 2.20%
Charleston-North Charleston SC $198,000 55.20% 2.20%
Ocean City NJ $350,000 145.40% 2.20%
Champaign-Urbana IL $143,000 33.50% 2.10%
New York-Wayne-White Plains NY $457,000 93.70% 2.10%
Spartanburg SC $126,000 21.40% 2.10%
La Crosse WI $115,469 34.50% 2.10%
Monroe MI $164,000 23.80% 2.10%
Modesto CA $400,000 155.50% 2.10%
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville CA $435,000 131.50% 2.10%
Jackson MI $112,761 28.80% 2.00%
Manchester-Nashua NH $284,000 70.00% 2.00%
Madison WI $225,000 41.00% 2.00%
Savannah GA $152,006 52.20% 2.00%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN $240,000 51.50% 1.90%
Flint MI $81,676 21.40% 1.90%
Holland-Grand Haven MI $174,173 22.30% 1.90%
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward CA $626,000 76.60% 1.90%
Barnstable Town MA $390,000 87.40% 1.90%
Kansas City MO $157,000 29.10% 1.90%
Gainesville GA $180,473 27.40% 1.90%
Racine WI $125,665 46.00% 1.80%
Rockford IL $115,000 27.90% 1.80%
Topeka KS $105,000 26.70% 1.80%
Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown NY $168,952 91.10% 1.70%
Bay City MI $106,237 22.40% 1.70%
Lake County-Kenosha County IL NA 40.80% 1.60%
Rapid City SD $124,493 36.90% 1.60%
Saginaw-Saginaw Township North MI $96,563 19.60% 1.60%
Merced CA $363,000 155.20% 1.50%
Essex County MA $382,000 48.60% 1.40%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA $400,000 157.10% 1.40%
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis WI $212,000 44.10% 1.30%
Bethesda-Frederick-Gaithersburg MD $450,000 115.20% 1.10%
Denver-Aurora CO $262,000 20.70% 1.10%
Boston-Quincy MA $384,000 61.30% 1.10%
Atlantic City NJ $270,000 109.10% 1.00%
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos CA $591,000 114.50% 0.90%
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall FL $311,000 150.30% 0.80%
Fort Walton Beach-Crestview-Destin FL $218,000 125.70% 0.70%
Reno-Sparks NV $231,161 110.40% 0.60%
Gulfport-Biloxi MS $147,000 37.50% 0.60%
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine CA $698,000 130.80% 0.60%
Vallejo-Fairfield CA $505,000 118.10% 0.60%
Napa CA $630,000 98.60% 0.40%
Pascagoula MS $96,303 39.20% 0.20%
Yuma AZ $115,951 87.50% 0.10%
Stockton CA $460,000 126.90% 0.00%
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River RI $290,000 96.00% 0.00%
Salinas CA $620,000 121.50% -0.10%
Greeley CO $170,215 24.40% -1.10%
Nassau-Suffolk NY $480,000 90.60% -1.50%
Carson City NV $192,473 105.50% -1.60%
Las Vegas-Paradise NV $319,000 116.30% -3.40%
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta CA $500,000 140.80% -3.60%
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